OPEC yakatarisana neyakakwira mafuta iri kugadzirira nguva yekudonha kudiwa!

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Iyo cartel yevagadziri vemafuta inonzi ndeyekutarisira kudzikiswa kwechigarire kwekudiwa kwemafuta mushure megomarara re coronavirus.

Dambudziko re coronavirus rinogona kunge rakakonzera kureba kwakamirira kwenguva yakareba mukudiwa kwemafuta, uye riri kutarisa pfungwa kune vanogadzira zvigadzirwa zvepasi rese nevanotengesa zvisirizvo.

Denda iri rakadzora kushandiswa kwemazuva ese nekukasira kweyetatu gore rino, panguva iyo kukwira kwemotokari dzemagetsi nekushandurwa kwemagetsi emagetsi zvekare zvaive zvichitungamira kudzokorodza pasi kufembera kwenguva refu kudikanwa kwemafuta.

Izvi zvakakurudzira vamwe vatungamiriri kusangano rePetroleum Exporting Nyika (OPEC), inonyanya kutsigira mafuta kubvira payakatangwa makore makumi matanhatu apfuura, kusava nechokwadi kana kudonhedzwa kwegore rino mukushainha kwezvekuchinja zvachose. uye maitiro ekunyatso maneja zvigadzirwa kana zera remafuta roswedera

"Vanhu vari kumuka kuchinhu chitsva uye kuedza kushanda misoro yavo zvakatenderedza zvese," gwaro reindasitiri riri padyo neOPEC rakaudza Reuters nhau venhau, vachiwedzera kuti "mukana uripo mune ramangwana." 'mweya yevatambi vese vakakosha' iyo kushandisa haina kuzombodzorera.

Reuters yakabvunzurudza vanomwe vekare uye vaimbove maofficial kana zvimwe zvinowanikwa muOPEC, vazhinji vacho vasina kubvunza kuti vanonzi ani. Vati dambudziko regore rino, iro rakanga rasundira mafuta pazasi pemadhora gumi nembiri, zvakaita kuti OPEC nenhengo dzayo gumi nematatu vabvunze maonero akatarisana nguva refu nezve tarisiro yekukura kwezvinhu. .

Makore gumi nemaviri chete apfuura, OPEC nyika dzanga dzichizara nemafuta pakadzika mafuta pamusoro pe $ 12 mbiya sezvo kudiwa kwakawedzera.

Ikozvino inotarisana nekuchinja kunoshamisa kana yekushandisa ikatanga kudzikira zvachose. Iri boka richafanirwa kubata kubata kwaro nevamwe vagadziri, vakaita seRussia, kunyange zvakanyanya zvakanyanya kuwedzera mari inodonha uye inofanirwa kushanda kuitira kuti hukama mukati meboka urege kukanganiswa nechisimba chekuda kudzivirira kugovaniswa kwemusika. muchiitiko chechibvumirano.

"Basa reOPEC richava rakaoma mune ramangwana nekuda kwekuderera kwezvekuda uye kuwedzera kwezvinhu zvisiri-OPEC kugadzirwa," akadaro Hasan Qabazard, 2006 OPEC director director. kusvika 2013, ayo basa rake zvino rinosanganisira kupa zano hedge mari uye mabhangi ekudyara pane OPEC mutemo.

Mumwe mukuru, anoshanda mune zvidzidzo zvemasimba pagurukota remafuta remumwe nhengo hombe yeOPEC, akati kushayikwa kwemafuta kwakadzora munguva yakapfuura kwakakonzera shanduko zvachose mumufambiro wevatengi. Akataura kuti panguva ino zvimwe hazvizove zvakasiyana.

"Kudiwa hakusi kudzokera kumatambudziko epamberi, kana kutora nguva kuti izvi zviitike," akadaro. "Chinhu chinonyanya kunetseka ndechekuti kudiwa kwemafuta kuchawedzera mumakore mashoma anotevera nekuda kwekufambira mberi kwehunyanzvi, kunyanya mumabhatiri emota. "

Muna 2019, nyika yakadya mamirari 99,7 miriyoni pazuva pazuva (b / d) - uye OPEC yakafungidzira kuwedzera zana nemakumi matanhatu nematanhatu b / d muna 101.

Asi kuvhara kwegore rino kwepasi rose, uko kwakadonhedza ndege uye kudhonza traffic mumigwagwa, zvakaita kuti OPEC idzikise huwandu hwe2020 kusvika pamamirioni 91 bpd, paine 2021 kudikanwa kuchiri pazasi 2019 mazinga.

Kufanotaura pamusoro peakanyanya

Nyika dzinogadzira, vanoongorora simba nemakambani emafuta vakaedza kwenguva yakareba kuona kuti nyika ichasvikira riini “mafuta ari pamusoro,” iyo pfungwa painobva yatanga kuderera zvachose. Asi chinodikanwa chakawedzera zvishoma gore roga roga, paine zvishoma zvinopesana nekudzoka kwekudzikira kwehupfumi.

Kunyange zvakadaro, OPEC yakadzikisa zvayakatarisira. Muna 2007, akafanotaura kudzika kwepasi rose kusvika 118 miriyoni b / d panosvika 2030. Gore rakapera, fungidziro yake yegore makumi maviri nemakumi matatu yakanga yadonha kusvika pamakumi masere nemashanu emamiriyoni b / d. Chiitiko chayo chaNovember chinotarisirwa kuratidza kumwe kudzika kwakadzokorodza, chinyorwa cheOPEC chakati.

Brent Refinitiv Yakashata Mutengo Wemafuta Chart

Vashandi veOPEC varamba kutaura kuReuters nezvekuda kwayo maitiro kana mutemo wezvechinyorwa. Asi vakuru vakati nhoroondo inoratidza kugona kweOPEC kushandurudza shanduko mumusika.

Kufungidzira kwekufungidzira kwakasiyana kunze kweOPEC. Makambani emafuta akadzikisira kutaridzika kwemitengo isina kuchena kwenguva yakareba sekuonekwa kwezvinhu zvinopera, nekudzora kukosha kwezvinhu zvavo.

Global kubvunza Firm DNV GL fungidziro inoda kunge yakakwira mu2019.

Chikamu chemugove wemafuta mukusangana kwemasimba epasi rose chakaderera zvakaderera mumakumi emakore apfuura, kubva pamakumi mana neshanu simba remagetsi rakashandiswa muna 40 kusvika makumi matatu nenhatu muzana muna 1994, kunyangwe mavhoriyamu akashandiswa akawedzera nemota zhinji. mumigwagwa, kuwedzera kwekutakura kwemhepo uye indasitiri yepeturu iyo inogadzira mapurasitiki uye zvimwe zvigadzirwa.

Izvozvi zvinogona kuchinja, sezvo mota dzemagetsi dzakawanda dzinobuda mumafekitori nendege dzichirwira kupora kubva padenda. Sangano reInternational Air Transport Association (IATA) haritarisiri kufamba kwemhepo kusvika pamazinga 2019 kusvika muna 2023 - pakutanga.

"Kana imwe nendege yapora pakupera kwa2023, kudiwa kuchadzokera kune zvakajairwa - kunze kwemakwikwi kubva kune mamwe magetsi emagetsi," akadaro wechipiri mukuru weOPEC akabatanidzwa mukufungidzira, kuonesa kuoma kwekuita fungidziro muchimiro chechimiro chepasi rose kushandisa mamwe masimba ane simba. nemamwe mafuta.

Izvi zvinosiya OPEC paine dambudziko rakatokura. Vazhinji veboka, rinovimba ne80% yezvemafuta epasi rose anochengeterwa nyika, vanovimba zvakanyanya nekusviba. Mitengo yemafuta, iri kutenderera pamusoro pemadhora makumi mana, ichiri pasi pazinga iro hurumende dzakawanda dzinoda kuenzanisa mabhajeti, kusanganisira OPEC de facto mutungamiri Saudi Arabia .

'Kuparadza zvachose zvekushaiwa'

OPEC, yavo inogadzirwa inosvika chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chezvinhu zvinowanikwa munyika, hazvishamisi matambudziko. Akabata zvekuvhundutsa panguva yekusawirirana kweGulf kuma1980, 1990s, uye 2000s uye akawana nzira dzekukurira apo vanogadzirisa vasiri-OPEC vanogadzirisa makombi, senge shale yemafuta. muUnited States mumakore gumi apfuura.

OPEC + musangano

Nguva pfupi yadarika, apo dambudziko rekoronavirus rakapwanya kuda, OPEC pamwe chete neRussia pamwe nemamwe mabatanidzwa, mubatanidzwa unozivikanwa seOPEC +, vakatenderana munaKurume kunyora zvigadzirwa zvekugadzira zve9,7, Mamirioni manomwe bpd, kana yakaenzana negumi muzana yezvipasi zvepasi. Aya akadzika anocheka kusvika pakupera kwaChikunguru.

Asi izvo zvinotevera zvinotevera kuvimbisa kuve kumwe kuyedzwa kwekushinga kweOPEC. Panzvimbo pekubata ne-one-off shock, OPEC inofanira kudzidza kurarama nekureba-kudzikira.

"Maitiro aya achasimbisa kudyidzana pakati penhengo dzeOPEC, pamwe nepakati peOPEC neRussia, sezvo imwe neimwe ichiyedza kuchengetedza chikamu chayo chemusika," akadaro Chakib Khelil, gurukota reAlgeria re mafuta kwegumi gumi uye kaviri Mutungamiri weOPEC.

Mamwe matambudziko enguva pfupi anogona kubuda kubva kuOPEC seIran neVenezuela, dzose dzakarohwa nezvirango zveUS, kutsvaga kukwezva kugadzirwa kana kugadzirwa kuchinjazve muLibya.

Vamwe vanogona kubva kunze, sezvo boka racho rinoedza kudzivirira kugadzirwa kwe shale muUnited States kubva mukutora chikamu mumusika nepo OPEC ichiona kudzika kugadzira mukuedza kwayo kutsigira mitengo.

"Kune matambudziko mazhinji ari mberi uye isu tinofanirwa kuchinjika," akadaro mumiriri weOPEC, uyo akati kuronga maboka eboka mumatambudziko apfuura kwakaratidza kuti anogona kupindura.

Aimbove director we OPEC research director Qabazard akati boka racho rinogona kunge riine imwezve nguva yekugadzirisa isati yada kukwirira. Asi akati nguva yekufa kwaichinjika yeOPEC yave kusvika.

"Handifunge kuti zvichapfuura mamirioni zana emabhero pazuva ne110s," akadaro, achiwedzera kuti kudonha kubva padenda re coronavirus kwakachinja tsika yekunwa zvakanaka.

“Kuparadza zvachose. "

Kwayedza: https: //www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/peak-oil-finally-opec-prepares-age-falling-demand-200728064859370.html

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