"Kana sarudzo dzikaitwa nhasi, Trump yaizokunda"

Donald Trump mune rimwe rangano rezvematongerwe enyika muGreen Bay, Wisconsin, 27 April 2019. - Mike Roemer / AP / SIPA
  • Svondo rinotevera reUnited States richasarudzwa mumwedzi gumi nemasere, November 3 2020.
  • Nhoroondo, apo hupfumi huri kuita zvakanaka, vashandi vanowanzosarudzwa zvakare.
  • Kunyange zvazvo kuzivikanwa kwaDonald Trump kwave kuchikwira, kunoramba kuchidzika pasi uye kunogona kumukuvadza.

Kubva kumanyorerano edu muUnited States,

"Ndiyo upfumi, benzi! Ichi chirevo chaJames Carville, nyanzvi huru yaBill Clinton mu1992, inoratidzira mafungiro asina kukwana: apo hupfumi hweUnited States huri kufamba zvakanaka, mutungamiri anongotora anogara achisarudzwa zvakare. ne kusasarudzwa kwebasa rakaderera uye Wall Street kusvika kune yakakwirira, Donald Trump inoratidzika seyakapikirwa kukunda munaNovember 2020. Asi pasinei nemamiriro ezvinhu akanaka, muridzi we White House
inoramba iripo kare isingafarirwi, chikonzero chinokonzera kusarura kwakaoma, kunyanya pamwedzi gumi nemasere ekuvhota.

Upfumi hwakanaka, asi 2020 ndiyo inofanirwa

Mark Zandi, imwe nyanzvi yezvehupfumi kuMoodys Analytics, anogara achizvidza mutungamiri weUnited States, asi anoramba achiti: "Kana sarudzo dzikaitwa nhasi, Trump yaizokunda, maererano nemuenzaniso wedu. Inotungamirirwa nekusava nebasa, pakadzika kwayo kusvika kwehafu yezana remakore, pa 3,6%, uye nekukura kwegore negore zvakapoteredza 3%. Asi zvakakosha kare ndezvekuita kwehupfumi kwemwedzi mitanhatu yekutanga yegore remasarudzo. "Kana ushayi hwekutanga huchikwira muna 2020, zvinowanzoita kuti urasike," anodaro Zandi.

Ray Fair, purofesa we economics kuYale, anobvumirana. Mutevedzeri wake, uyo akapa Trump mutsva mu2016 (asi overestimating yake 6% chikwata), anofanotaura zvakare kudzorera kwake zvakare. Mukuwedzera kumabasa, kubuda kunoendeswa neWall Street (+ 40% kubva pakusarudzwa kwayo, iyo inobatsira mari yakabhadhara mari yevanhu vazhinji veAmerica), petoro inotengeswa (75 masentimita neawa imwe chete), uye kuwedzera kuwedzera chikwata chechibereko. Kunze kwekudarika kwaigona kuita Donald Trump kurasikirwa, maererano neRay Fair's model. Uye njodzi ye2020, iyo yakanga ichiri kuoneka yakakwirira mwedzi mitanhatu yakapfuura, yakadonha kusvika 10%, maererano zvakatemwa zveGoldman Sachs. Anoramba ari pangozi
yebhizimisi hondo neChina uye mutsara wekuwirwa kwechisimba nemhosva - yehurumende, maAmerica, uye makambani - rekodhi.

Kusada kwake kunobatanidza zvose

Kwete nekukurumidza, tema John Sides, purofesa wezvematongerwe enyika paGeorge Washington University. Kana hupfumi hwakagara huri hutano hwakanaka hunoshandiswa (uye hunotsanangura kukundwa kwaGerald Ford, Jimmy Carter naBush Sr.), "mumasarudzo azvino, zvinoratidzika kuti kufanirwa kwemukururi wenyika kunokosha kupfuura chero upi hwepi chinangwa chehupfumi ".

Kuzivikanwa kwaDonald Trump hakuna kumbochinja pamwedzi yekupedzisira ye12. - Real Clear Politics

PaC42% inogutsikana, maererano nehuwandu hwemasarudzo Makumi makumi matatu Eight, uye 44% zvichienderana neiyo kubva Real Real Politics, Donald Trump inobva kuDecember pasi 2017 (37%). Haasi kure neve Obama kana Reagan scores pachikwata chimwechete. Asi ivo vakanga vadzoka nenzira inonakidza mumba makarega. Trump, "ndiye chete purezidhendi wemazuva ano asi asina kumbopfuura 50% yebasa rake," anoyeuka kudaro Sam Wang, nyanzvi yezvinyorwa paPrinceton Election Consortium. Kunyange mushumo we Mueller pamusoro pekukanganisika kwekubatana neRussia, iyo ine
zvakanyanya kuponeswa, haifaniri kunge yakawedzera pakufunga.

Kunze kwekuti iye asingakwanisi kupedza nepamuviri wake, Donald Trump achafanira kuvimba pachigaro chake kuti adzorerwe zvakare. Ndicho chikonzero ichi chaanosungira pakunamatira mafaira se kubva munyika yako ou kupfupfudzika. Kutarisana nazvo
Joe Biden kana Bernie SandersKana matambudziko ake asingasimuke, Donald Trump achafanirwa kuita sarudzo imwechete yakanangana naHillary Clinton, anopedzisa Sam Wang: "Ita mhirizhonga yakaipa-kuderedza kuderedza kufarirwa kwemuvengi wake. Hondo iyi ichava ropa.

Nyaya iyi yakatanga kutanga https://www.20minutes.fr/monde/2519679-20190517-presidentielle-americaine-pourquoi-trump-serieuses-chances-etre-reelu-2020